Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will be measured and reported via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. This market resolves to a temperature range in degrees Celsius, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The resolution methodology explicitly prioritises the granular Daily Observations dataset over summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday peaks diverge from reported highs.

August in Tokyo typically sees maximum temperatures between 32–36 °C, with humidity and urban heat-island effects around Haneda creating conditions favourable to sustained heat. Historical August records for the airport station exceed 37 °C; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing extreme heat as unlikely or treating this as a low-liquidity, niche weather contract. Comparable airport-station temperature markets have resolved across wide ranges; Haneda's coastal location and proximity to Sagami Bay provide marginal cooling relative to central Tokyo, a factor that influences seasonal baseline expectations.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or typhoon activity that might suppress temperatures. The Pacific typhoon season peaks in August; tropical systems can either elevate humidity whilst capping highs or, conversely, clear skies and intensify solar heating. Real-time Weather Underground data feeds become critical in the final 48 hours before settlement. From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction: German traders face GlüStV restrictions on prediction markets, whilst US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives on weather indices; most platforms offer no-KYC access up to approximately $1,500 notional exposure, allowing small-stake participation without identity verification, though this market's niche nature may limit such exemptions.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.

How are winnings taxed?

Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

Can I trade anonymously?

Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.

What happens during a tax audit?

You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.