Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome other than 20°C, which the market assigns a 100% chance of occurring, effectively ruling out extremes like 16°C or below or temperatures above 24°C[1].

Historical June weather at Toronto Pearson shows daily highs typically rising from 71°F to 78°F (22°C to 26°C), rarely dipping below 60°F (16°C), with thundery showers common on late June days[5][3]. The 20°C frontrunner aligns with recent forecasts, including a 2024 record of 24°C on the same date, suggesting moderate conditions rather than heatwaves or cold snaps[8]. Traders should watch for official announcements from Environment Canada regarding heat advisories, scheduled thunderstorm models, and dependencies on regional humidity levels that could shift temperatures slightly[6]. A recent NetNewsLedger report noted a 24°C high with a humidex of 28 on 25 June 2024, reinforcing the likelihood of mild, stable weather[8].

Regulatory accessibility hinges on German GlüStV implications, which may restrict unlicensed betting platforms, and US CFTC reach, which could impose compliance burdens on non-KYC traders. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" clause allows casual participants to access this market without identity verification, but only for stakes under that threshold, limiting exposure for larger traders while maintaining broad accessibility for retail users. These frameworks do not constitute legal advice but outline current operational boundaries for market participation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.