Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
63% | 37% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
63% | 37% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| France | 63% |
| Argentina | 21% |
| United States | 5% |
| England | 4% |
| Brazil | 4% |
| Spain | 2% |
| Norway | 2% |
| Colombia | 1% |
| Portugal | 1% |
| Switzerland | 1% |
| Mexico | 1% |
| Belgium | 1% |
| Cape Verde | 0% |
| Croatia | 0% |
| Curaçao | 0% |
| Czechia | 0% |
| Iran | 0% |
| Japan | 0% |
| Netherlands | 0% |
| Paraguay | 0% |
| Scotland | 0% |
| South Africa | 0% |
| Tunisia | 0% |
| Country A | 0% |
| Country C | 0% |
| Country D | 0% |
| Country E | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0% |
| Egypt | 0% |
| Germany | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | 0% |
| Qatar | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Algeria | 0% |
| Australia | 0% |
| Austria | 0% |
| Canada | 0% |
| Haiti | 0% |
| Iraq | 0% |
| Morocco | 0% |
| New Zealand | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% |
| Senegal | 0% |
| South Korea | 0% |
| Sweden | 0% |
| Türkiye | 0% |
| Uruguay | 0% |
| Uzbekistan | 0% |
| DR Congo | 0% |
| Ecuador | 0% |
| Ghana | 0% |
| Jordan | 0% |
| Panama | 0% |
| Country B | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 63% probability to world cup: top scorer (nation). This market will resolve to the nation that records the most total goals through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the of…
Methodology
This overview of World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation) reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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