Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 99% |
| O/U 36.5 | 99% |
| O/U 42.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 99% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 99% |
| O/U 40.5 | 98% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 98% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 98% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 96% |
| Spread -1.5 | 95% |
| O/U 32.5 | 95% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 95% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 94% |
| O/U 49.5 | 93% |
| Spread -2.5 | 93% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 93% |
| O/U 51.5 | 92% |
| O/U 48.5 | 92% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 92% |
| Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| O/U 52.5 | 91% |
| Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| Spread -3.5 | 89% |
| O/U 46.5 | 89% |
| O/U 50.5 | 89% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| Spread -6.5 | 88% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 88% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 53.5 | 85% |
| O/U 54.5 | 83% |
| Spread -7.5 | 81% |
| Spread -9.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Spread -10.5 | 74% |
| O/U 60.5 | 73% |
| Spread -13.5 | 73% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 71% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| O/U 56.5 | 69% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 69% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 68% |
| Spread -14.5 | 67% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 67% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 67% |
| O/U 64.5 | 64% |
| O/U 55.5 | 64% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 63% |
| Spread -16.5 | 62% |
| O/U 58.5 | 61% |
| Spread -8.5 | 61% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| O/U 44.5 | 59% |
| O/U 62.5 | 59% |
| Spread -17.5 | 59% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 56% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| O/U 38.5 | 54% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Spread -19.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 49% |
| Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| Spread -20.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| O/U 68.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| O/U 72.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 26% |
| Spread -21.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 70.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Lions vs. Bills | 6% |
| Spread -1.5 | 4% |
| Spread -4.5 | 4% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 4% |
| Spread -2.5 | 3% |
| Spread -3.5 | 3% |
| Spread -5.5 | 3% |
| Spread -6.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| Spread -9.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
The Lions vs. Bills prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 17 at 8:15PM ET: If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, this …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $11.2M.
Methodology
This overview of Lions vs. Bills reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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