Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 16 July 2026, resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that daily maximum. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the leading outcome, yet the frontrunner is actually 29°C with a 38% market share, while 28°C follows at 27% [1]. This discrepancy suggests the 0% figure may refer to a specific outlier range or a technical display error rather than the consensus view on the most likely temperature band.

Historical seasonal forecasts for July–September 2026 indicate temperatures in Hong Kong are expected to be normal to above-normal, influenced by the latest ENSO status and climate model guidance [2]. Comparable July records in recent years frequently exceed 28°C during periods of above-normal heat, making the 29°C frontrunner a statistically plausible outcome despite the initial 0% signal. Traders should scrutinise whether the 0% applies to a narrow, unlikely range rather than the primary temperature bands.

Key catalysts include the finalisation of the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" data, which determines the official "Absolute Daily Max" for settlement [1]. Regulatory accessibility hinges on German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach, particularly regarding the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold that allows unverified access for smaller positions. Traders must monitor the Observatory’s publication schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the relevant daily data is formally published.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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